Rally and crash: According to PlanB, Bitcoin is likely to take some surprising turns in the coming year.
It is slowly becoming apparent. The much-cited $ 100,000, which quite a few Bitcoin traders swore by, does not seem to be able to be reached this year. Just add 50,000 US dollars in two days: This is an impossibility even for a highly volatile cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. And so must the forecast model most commonly used in Bitcoin space, that of PlanBStock to flow ratio adjusted to Bitcoin, which calculates the price development based on the asset shortage, can be pushed down significantly. According to the author of the model, expectations of a never-ending bull market would also have to be throttled. According to PlanB, investors should dress warmly for a new crypto winter next year and be prepared for price drops of up to 80 percent.
A glimmer of hope: PlanB’s assessment relates to the phase after the rally, in which Bitcoin should reach a six-digit price level. “I think we’re going to go pretty high to at least get to the stock-to-flow model of $ 100,000 and $ 288,000. But after that we will fall again by 80 percent, ”explains the trader in a YouTube video . The two well-known reasons for the rapid ascent and descent: FOMO and FUD.
Fear and Greed in Bitcoin Land
The 80 percent seem dramatic and more of a hip than well-founded. However, such a scenario is not impossible. With the mining ban in May, China had almost halved the value of the cryptocurrency. According to PlanB, such events could repeat themselves if the Bitcoin price rises too high and the corresponding ban debates are rolled up again.
“For example, if we hit $ 100,000 in a few months, people will be doing FOMO and the price will go up. Then something terrible happens: another ban from China or India or something. Everyone is afraid again and fear sets in. So I think the fear and greed will never go away with Bitcoin. “
From PlanB’s point of view, a bear market is inevitable. But that would be bearable, at least from today’s perspective. Assuming PlanB is right and the BTC rate actually rose to $ 288,000, it would still be at $ 57,000 with an 80 percent drop – almost $ 8,000 more than currently.