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Sunday, October 1, 2023

Euro / dollar parity: what future for Bitcoin?

Bitcoin will have failed to hold above the $20,000 mark. Several experts in the field have warned of further falls in assets, in particular following the parity of the euro with the dollar: a first for 20 years.

Bitcoin over the past few days

Bitcoin was able to hold above $20,000 until the end of last week for a more accurate value of $20,850 . Nevertheless, a drop started to occur at the resistance at $20,300 suggesting that the asset could still fall back below the $20,000 mark.

This is what happened on the night of July 11 to 12 when Bitcoin again entered $19,000 for the fourth time in a few weeks. Currently, the BTC exchange price is $19,508 as of this writing.

Beyond a relatively fragile market where mistrust reigns, a new factor has reinforced this effect. This is the parity of the euro with the dollar. Indeed a dollar is now worth almost a euro (to within a few cents). This is an event that has not happened for 20 years.

As a bonus, today, July 13, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. There is risk of a further decline in most assets if June inflation beats estimates.

Also, the impact of miners should not be underestimated , as noted by Blockware analyst Joe Burnett. Indeed, the latter already have tight margins, if the costs continue to climb while the value of Bitcoin decreases, this will have more consequences.

One more fall to bounce back better?

For the former CEO of the BitMEX platform, Arthur Hayes, he seems convinced that the parity between the dollar and the euro will lead to their loss of these more traditional currencies. Therefore, central banks would have to adopt yield curve control (YCC) which would lead to a disintegration of the currency.

Eventually, if such a possibility were to occur, then there would be a chance that Bitcoin could rise to the top as the global currency to rely on. This would have the effect that this asset would increase in value enormously, much more than all the records we have seen so far.

This prediction does not date from today, but already last April, it was a hypothesis put forward by certain models. It will of course be necessary to be patient to see if such a reality will occur in the years to come or if, like other more pessimistic experts, Bitcoin could disappear, because it is an asset that is not based on anything.

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