OPEC in its June report revised the oil consumption indicators in 2019 and in 2020 – in 2019 the figure was reduced by 20 thousand bpd – to 99.97 million bpd, and for 2020 the estimate was increased from 90.51 million b / d to 90.63 million b / d (120 thousand b / d), follows from the new report of the organization.
Taking into account the preservation of the forecast for the growth rate of oil demand in 2021 in the amount of 5.95 million barrels per day, OPEC now expects that in 2021 oil consumption in the world will reach 96.58 million barrels per day (previous estimate – 96.46 million barrels /from).
The outlook for the 1st quarter of 2021 was revised slightly lower due to the worsening performance in the OECD countries of America and Europe, but the April performance in these regions and the improvement in the mobility situation due to the easing of quarantines and the opening of borders caused an increase in the assessment for the 2nd quarter of 2021, which practically compensated for the deterioration in Q1 data.
Data from non-OECD countries have been improved, mainly due to positive indicators in the Middle East in the 2nd quarter.
OECD demand is expected to grow by 2.7 million bpd in 2021, mostly in the second half of the year.
The main growth in demand will fall on the American OECD countries, led by the United States, due to the recovery in the consumption of motor fuels and light and middle distillates, but in 2021 the demand in the region will not recover to the pre-pandemic level, according to OPEC.
Non-OECD countries will increase oil consumption by 3.3 million bpd, mainly China, India and other Asian countries.
Thus, OPEC analysts lowered the estimate of demand in the first quarter of 2021 by 360 thousand bpd – to 93.29 million bpd, but for the second quarter the forecast was raised by 470 thousand bpd – to 94.79 million bpd , in the third quarter consumption will be 280 thousand b / d higher than the May expectations – 97.9 million b / d, and in the fourth quarter by 80 thousand b / d higher – 99.74 million b / d, which is almost the same as in 2019 of the year.
Preliminary data show that commercial oil reserves of OECD countries in April fell by 6.4 million barrels to 2.962 billion barrels, which is 160 million barrels lower than a year earlier and 34 million barrels higher than the average level for 2015-2019. (indicator of the effectiveness of the OPEC + deal).
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At the same time, oil reserves decreased over the month by 13.6 million barrels – to 1.475 billion barrels (now 8 million barrels lower than in 2015-2019), and oil products – increased by 7.2 million barrels, to 1.487 billion (now 43 million barrels higher than in 2015-2019).