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Sunday, July 25, 2021

The Russian stock market ended the week with a decline on a negative external background

The Russian stock market ended the week with a decline following oil quotes and world stock markets. Thus, the Moscow Exchange index sank by 0.42% – to 3802.95 points, the RTS dollar index – by 1.06%, to 1646.72 points.

The dollar is growing by 0.57% – up to 72.7345 rubles, the euro – by 0.29%, up to 86.3966 rubles.

“In all likelihood, investors are ready to fix profits, because there are no further reasons to continue impetuous purchases. There is no reason for a powerful rollback, therefore, it is now the best option to partially fix the positive and wait for further developments, “says Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at IAC Alpari.

At the same time, support for the global market today was provided by the decision of the Bank of Japan to extend the business support program in the context of a pandemic until the end of March 2022. “The information supported the forecasts of the preservation of the economic base in the region of East and Southeast Asia, which forms investment demand, despite the increased medium-term risks of a cooling of the American stock market as part of the FRS announced yesterday that it began discussing a possible reduction in the asset repurchase program,” said an analyst with the investment company Freedom Finance »Alexander Osin.

Brent crude oil prices drop below $ 74 per barrel. The pressure on oil quotes was exerted by the local strengthening of the dollar, as well as the next wave of increased viral risks, explains the investment strategist of BCS World of Investments Alexander Bakhtin.

“The UK, where more than three quarters of the population are vaccinated against coronavirus, faced the rapid spread of the Indian strain of the pathogen and was forced to extend quarantine restrictions for a month,” the expert points out.

Corporate sector

The growth leaders were securities TCS (+ 5.58%), which are making another attempt to break through to a maximum of 5846 rubles. The shares of Polyus Gold are looking good, supported by the fundamental factor in the revival of demand in the world for jewelry, Bodrova notes.

The list of outsiders is headed by Rusal (-2.21%), Alrosa (-3.1%) and AFK Sistema (-2.5%). The sale is also taking place in VTB securities (-2.29%).

Expert forecasts

At the beginning of next week, the drawdown in the markets will start to gradually buy back, Bakhtin said. “The market participants are coming to understand that the US Federal Reserve will maintain its ultra-soft policy in the medium term, in particular against the background of the uncertain recovery of the US labor market. Investors will continue to closely monitor the virus situation, commodity prices, signals from regulators and key statistics, ”the expert believes.

On Monday, June 21, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak. Rosstat is to provide data on GDP, retail sales for May and unemployment for June.

According to BCS Investments World, the Mosbirzh index on Monday will be formed in the range of 3780-3880 points, the dollar exchange rate – 71.8-73.3 rubles.

Target ranges for the closure of the investment company “Freedom Finance” for the Moscow Exchange index – 3765-3825 points, for the dollar and euro rates 72.2-72.7 rubles. and 85.15-86.75 rubles. respectively.

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