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Bitcoin’s price could take a serious hit if it doesn’t get quantum-resistant soon, according to Charles Edwards of digital asset fund Capriole. He warns that if Bitcoin drags its feet on quantum security, the Bitcoin sub-$50K scenario could become reality by 2028, potentially triggering one of the deepest bear markets in the asset’s history.
People have talked for years about quantum computing as a threat to crypto. If quantum machines get strong enough, they could crack encryption, steal private keys, and put everyone’s coins at risk. Most experts still see this as a problem for the future, but Edwards thinks markets won’t wait around for proof. They’ll react early.
This week on X, Edwards didn’t mince words. He called out the complacency around quantum risks, saying it could backfire if the Bitcoin network doesn’t move fast.
“Honestly, I’m starting to think we’ll only see real action after a brutal bear market wipes out the folks who treat the quantum threat like a joke. Maybe then the Bitcoin diehards will finally get serious about upgrading the network,” he said.
“If we haven’t rolled out a fix by 2028, I see Bitcoin dropping under $50K and staying down until someone does something about it.”
Why 2028 Has Become a Bitcoin Sub-$50K Market Flashpoint
Edwards keeps coming back to one point: it’s not about if quantum computing will threaten today’s cryptography, but whether people will see Bitcoin as prepared when that day comes. He thinks Bitcoin needs a solid quantum-resistant upgrade by 2026. That way, there’s enough time to test it, get people on board, and show the market it’s ready.
He’s not worried about Bitcoin suddenly breaking. The real risk is that people lose faith. If Bitcoin drags its feet while banks and other financial systems switch to post-quantum encryption, investors might start to doubt it long before any actual attack happens.
A Sharp Contrast With Past Market Beliefs
Edwards warning really flips the script compared to what investors believed about a year ago. Back then, people were convinced Bitcoin would never drop below $50,000 again.
Most folks figured Bitcoin had grown up. Big institutions were buying in, the supply was predictable, and those old cycle lows? Supposedly gone for good. If Bitcoin slipped toward $50,000, everyone saw it as a bargain, not a red flag.
That optimism came more from watching prices and adoption stats than from thinking about bigger, long-term risks. The faith was all about how things looked right now, and this idea that Bitcoin’s fundamentals had set a new, higher floor.
Now that people are talking about Bitcoin dipping under $50,000 again, it doesn’t erase all the progress. Really, it just shows how fast the story can change when something new enters the picture.
From “Never Again” to Conditional Risk
No one’s saying Bitcoin is on the verge of falling apart. The real conversation has just shifted people aren’t talking in black-and-white terms anymore. Now, it’s all about the “what ifs.”
Think back a year. Hardly anyone took the idea of Bitcoin dropping below $50,000 seriously. These days? It’s on the table, but only if the network can’t prove it’s ready for the risks that come with quantum computing. That’s not about losing faith it’s just a more thoughtful, almost institutional way of weighing risks.
Investors are starting to treat Bitcoin like a long-term bet. And when you do that, you can’t ignore even those rare but big risks, especially with so much uncertainty about timing and how everyone will coordinate.
Debate Over the Real Quantum Threat
Some people say the whole quantum threat is blown out of proportion. They figure we’re still years away from a quantum computer that can actually crack today’s encryption. Plus, if anyone does build one, they’ll probably go after banks or government systems first, not Bitcoin.
Edwards doesn’t buy it. He thinks Bitcoin could actually be one of the first big targets. Why? Most banks and big organizations are already working on switching to post-quantum security, but Bitcoin’s decentralized setup makes any system upgrade a slow and complicated process.
And here’s the kicker: when a bank gets hacked, they can usually reverse the damage. Bitcoin doesn’t work that way. If someone manages to break it, those transactions are final. That makes any vulnerability a lot more dangerous.
“We have to fix this next year, or bon voyage—enjoy the biggest Bitcoin bear market in history,” Edwards said. “FTX will look like a cakewalk.”
Other Voices Weigh In
People in the crypto world can’t seem to agree on this one.
Willy Woo, a well-known Bitcoin analyst, thinks there’s a simple move for now: stash your Bitcoin in SegWit wallets. He says that’ll keep you safe from quantum risks for a few years, at least until someone comes up with a real fix.
On the other hand, Michael Saylor from MicroStrategy isn’t worried at all. He’s called the whole quantum threat overhyped. Earlier this year, he said people were just using it as a marketing trick to push quantum-themed crypto tokens—not because Bitcoin’s security is actually in danger.
A Market Risk, Not a Crisis—Yet
Right now, Bitcoin’s still safe. No one’s seen any sign of a quantum attack coming soon. But here’s the thing Edwards isn’t worried about the tech suddenly breaking. He’s talking about how people feel. Sometimes, confidence fades way before any real weakness shows up.
If investors start thinking Bitcoin isn’t keeping up with cryptography, the way they value it changes. Suddenly, those big milestones like $50,000 don’t feel as solid anymore.
Market Outlook
The debate around quantum computing really shows how Bitcoin is forcing people to rethink risk. As Bitcoin gets older and settles into the global financial scene, it’s not just about how rare or decentralized it is anymore—being able to adapt for the long haul matters just as much.
When Bitcoin dips below $50,000, it’s not some bold prediction. It’s just a reminder: markets care as much about how prepared you are as they do about how you perform. The difference between last year’s swagger and today’s cautious tone doesn’t mean Bitcoin’s in trouble. It just means the whole system is maturing.
Right now, Bitcoin’s holding strong. Still, with all this talk about quantum threats starting to turn into real plans, people are going to expect the network to prove it’s ready for whatever’s coming. That pressure’s only going to grow.
