Bigger highs after prolonged consolidation in major cryptocurrencies put altcoins in an interesting position. In addition to the broader topic of potential capital inflows in DeFi, we will analyze the charts of the older altcoins – “dinosaurs” (Litecoin / Bitcoin and XRP / Bitcoin pairs) that have shown the greatest strength in recent days, and also take a brief look at the early leaders in the DeFi sector (DeFi Index, Uniswap / USD and Cake / USD).
Bitcoin Price Prediction Technical Analysis: continuation of the trend after consolidation
Bitcoin has set a new larger high against the dollar, breaking through the upper end of a range it has traded in for 50 days. The bottom was formed at the support of $ 56-57.5 thousand on the daily timeframe. Considering that the breakout has just happened, from the point of view of technical analysis, everything looks quite simple.
First, the less time the price spends near the breakout level, the better. The best breakouts don’t give a lot of time to comprehend and join the momentum, so the last thing I’d like to see is Bitcoin slowing down right now or somehow flirting with implied retest levels for too long.
Second point: the level of “invalidation” now moves to a new breakout point. With a rapidly developing bullish trend, breakout levels should not be lost on a test for support. Accordingly, any closing of the daily candle below $ 61.2 thousand may signal that the situation is taking a bad turn. We are not saying that we consider this option to be expected, but it is certainly worth keeping in mind.
Finally, the consolidation of the bitcoin price against the dollar has been quite lengthy. Longer consolidations are usually followed by long impulses. So if this breakthrough is not invalidated in the very near future, the numbers can be expected to grow for some time.
Ethereum Price Prediction Technical Analysis: mirror charts and breakout up
Ethereum also broke the range upwards and updated the maximum against the dollar. It is logical that almost everything said about the BTC / USD pair applies to ETH / USD as well.
In short, we are expecting a bullish continuation against the dollar, unless the breakout is invalidated by a close below $ 2,130.
The ETH / BTC pair remains relevant. The fact that such a breakout in BTC / USD did not immediately cause ETH to drop to BTC is already quite impressive. This is a demonstration of relative strength that is definitely worth keeping in mind. As for the technical component, from our point of view, a close above the upper border of the range (₿0.039–0.041) is still a prerequisite for it to be possible to talk about a significant advance of Bitcoin in terms of profitability.
Litecoin Price Prediction Technical Analysis: good dynamics in relation to BTC
The weekly candle closed above the resistance level of ₿0.00374, which is now expected to serve as support. The nearest resistance for today is ₿0.0045, and the market is already close to it.
Our “requirements” to this pair were quite serious – “in any development of events, except for vertical growth, longs should be hastily reduced” – but the schedule was quite consistent with the set bar.
Older altcoins are still performing well (XRP, Litecoin, Tron, etc.) despite early signs of a (new) capital flow to DeFi. In order for the bullish scenario to remain in effect, the level of ₿0.00374 should work out as support in case of a retest. The daily close below it is likely to signal the reversal of the bullish scenario.
At the same time, it must be said that the retention (and even growth) of the rate against BTC on the day of the Bitcoin breakout gives the impression of a great start for a strong uptrend.
Ripple Price Prediction Technical Analysis: XRP defies gravity
XRP has shown significant gains. In the pair against the dollar (chart omitted), there are no known resistance levels, and in the pair against BTC, it won back the fall provoked by the actions of the SEC. A convincing display of strength.
We will only focus on the XRP / BTC pair today for several reasons. Firstly, in a pair to USD, the Ripple course has already set off to explore uncharted territories. There is an implied $ 1 support level in case of a pullback, but for now it looks like the market is set to continue the momentum. Secondly, from the point of view of those. analysis, the XRP / BTC rate tends to behave somewhat more reasonable and orderly, and, probably, can serve as a guide to some extent when it is difficult to say something definite on the pair against the dollar.
The news of the SEC lawsuit and the subsequent delisting from several major exchanges caused the XRP market to plunge. From a TA point of view, there were no good signs of recovery, and XRP has been losing out to most crypto assets for a long time. Now, in less than two weeks, this market has won back long months of stagnation.
When paired with BTC, the technical component looks clear enough. First, the dump and stagnation mentioned above were played back. Secondly, the closest important level from the point of view of TA is the upper limit of the range of 2981–3272 satoshi. It should also be noted that this level has already been tested many times, and with each test the resistance / support level becomes weaker.
Summarizing the above, the successful overcoming of the resistance at the level of 2981-3272 satoshi teleports the XRP / BTC rate vertically upward. The next resistance is at the level of 4322–4650 satoshi. As for the possible cancellation of the scenario, the loss of support is not an option for an impulse movement. Therefore, any close of the day session below the nearest support level at 2193 Satoshi will be a very unpleasant signal.
Signs of New Capital Flows to DeFi
Equity in the crypto market is like a time bomb that goes from sector to sector, provided that broader conditions are favorable for speculation in altcoins.
The only sector performing poorly in this last time window is DeFi. And while the narrative “direct placement of Coinbase = growth of all exchange tokens” seems to be starting to bear fruit, the market is already showing signs that the next capital flow target is likely to be the DeFi sector.
Our argument for this is pretty simple. Most altcoin indices have risen substantially over the past couple of weeks. DeFi against this background showed rather weak results. Now, the DeFi index has broken the upper end of the range, closing above $ 12,160, and blue chips in this sector have also shown relative strength.
Cancellation of such a scenario will be any kind of unsuccessful breakout with the closing of the day session below $ 12,160 and / or weak performance of DeFi-coins against the backdrop of slowing volatility of the largest altcoins.
Uniswap Leads the Attack
Continuing the thesis about the impending capital flow to DeFi, our attention was drawn to the Uniswap / USD pair.
This market completely destroyed the immediate resistance and renewed the maximum in the impulse movement. In addition, this larger high was formed on a day when most of the DeFi sector (excluding SushiSwap and Aave) was in the red.
The main counterargument against the DeFi capital flow conclusion based on Uniswap price movements is that Uniswap is somewhat akin to exchange tokens, which means it could benefit from this narrative (along with Binance Coin, FTT, etc.). And this is a powerful counter-argument, but it is not enough to completely refute our idea.
Plus, money speaks for itself. The Uniswap rate against the dollar showed impulsive growth and confidently broke through the nearest resistance. If the idea of capital flow is correct, then this demonstration of relative strength on the part of Uniswap should continue.
Technical support is at $ 30-31 (range breakout, more or less). Breaking this structure will mean canceling the script.
PancakeSwap
CAKE / USD is another possible bet on capital flows to DeFi. Technically, the price is at the support.
Yes, there are reasonable concerns about the decentralization of the BSC ecosystem, especially compared to the major distributed exchanges in the DeFi sector, but the market doesn’t care right now. As DonAlt has repeatedly (and reasonably) pointed out, decentralization is less important in a bull market, but it takes on much more importance in a bear market.
It is also no secret that BSC has recently taken over the DeFi sector – Binance Coin and CAKE have grown rapidly in recent weeks amid the haircut that reigned in the DeFi sector as a whole.
Our assessment of the prospects for the CAKE / USD pair is based, in general, on the same level. The nearest support is the $ 22.8-24.2 cluster. If it is kept, then growth can be expected. There are other support levels below, but their trade will look much less attractive, given that the immediate support in this case will be lost for the first time in several weeks.
That’s all for today. Have a great week!
