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Sunday, June 20, 2021

Bitcoin course with new record: USD 100,000 in May?

After a bullish weekend, investors are taking advantage of the new Bitcoin all-time high for profit-taking. There are some indications that the end of the flagpole has not yet been reached. 

The market update:

On a brilliant weekend, the Bitcoin price climbed to a new record. The crypto reserve currency rose to $ 61,170 on Saturday, March 13th. The Bitcoin price has increased by over 1,000 percentage points since the Corona crash a year ago. Reason enough for one or two profit-taking: At the time of going to press, Bitcoin was trading at 58,681 US dollars, just below the recently conquered 60,000 mark.

As is so often the case, the Altcoins let themselves be carried away by the Bitcoin rally and – at least in a weekly comparison – also largely printed green candles. Within the top 50 coins by market capitalization, Chiliz (CHZ), Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) and Enjin (ENJ) can boast strong price gains in the three-digit percentage range. Chiliz (400 percent up) and Enjin (95 percent up) benefit from the growing hype about non-fungible tokens; a sector in which the two projects have specialized.

After a record high: Almost all Bitcoin investors are up

The strong development in the Bitcoin price has ensured that practically every Bitcoin holder is currently in the plus again. 99.36 percent of all Bitcoin units (Unspent Transaction Outputs, UTXO) are worth more than when they were created. 

The fact that a long position in Bitcoin pays off is not only underlined by Glassnode’s UTXO analysis. A look at the data from Datamish suggests that fewer and fewer traders are daring to take a short position and speculate on a falling Bitcoin price.

A year ago, the share of short positions in margin trading with Bitcoin was over a third. This proportion fell to less than six percent over the course of the year.

Conquering the latest all-time high has plucked the fur of many bears: on the Bitcoin derivatives exchange Bitmex alone, short positions with a volume of 75 million US dollars were liquidated on Saturday.

Bitcoin price follows stock-to-flow forecast

With its sustained bullish price development, Bitcoin remains within the price range forecast by the stock-to-flow model (S2F). The method used for the first time by the Dutch crypto analyst PlanB on Bitcoin has so far proven to be an astonishingly accurate metric for modeling the Bitcoin price. Specifically, PlanB has established a supposed connection between the stock-to-flow ratio of Bitcoin, the Bitcoin halvings and the Bitcoin exchange rate.

Should the Bitcoin course continue to follow the – not entirely undisputed – model, Bitcoin bulls have every reason to scratch their hooves. Because that would mean that the Bitcoin rate will rise to $ 100,000 this year. It could be as early as May.

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