Bitcoin between $ 15,000 and $ 600,000? Guggenheim forecast with a double bottom.
Guggenheim CEO Scott Minerd looks into the past and thinks a massive correction in the Bitcoin rate is likely. Nevertheless, he remains with a bullish long-term outlook.
In December 2020, Scott Minerd made the hearts of the Bitcoin bulls beat faster . As the head of Guggenheim Partners, an asset manager that manages around USD 270 billion, he had a Bitcoin rate against Bloomberg from $ 400,000 to $ 600,000 brought into play. “Our fundamental analysis has shown that Bitcoin should be worth around $ 400,000,” Minerd said at the time. BTC has “unusual value” for transactions and would outperform gold in that regard. Its bullish estimate is based on the assumption that BTC can achieve a market cap on the order of gold. It is currently estimated at between $ 9 billion and $ 13.5 billion. The Guggenheim boss made the statement in the middle of the Bitcoin bull run at the end of the year. As is well known, Bitcoin is currently on the ground search – has Minerd’s view changed?
Bitcoin rate at USD 15,000: another mega-correction coming?
Compared to the US news broadcaster CNBC , Minerd was a bit more defensive about his prospects for the Bitcoin price . The calculation remains the same, only the doubts about Bitcoin’s quality as a store of value become clearer in the CNBC interview .
Our research shows that as a store of value, and this is a moot point when compared to gold, [BTC] would be anywhere between $ 400,000 and $ 600,000.
Before – if at all – the Bitcoin price soars into six-part spheres, Minerd sees a massive correction on the horizon.
With every major spike in Bitcoin, there has been about an 80 percent crash. Well, that would make a lot of sense in a lot of ways, because that would bring us back near $ 15,000. I said between $ 20,000 and $ 30,000. The real low if you look at the specs is $ 10,000, which is a bit extreme – I’d say $ 15,000,
it emerges from the crystal ball of the Guggenheim boss, whose long-term outlook remains bullish.
PlanB: Stock-to-flow has not yet failed
The Dutch Bitcoin analyst PlanB also distilled an extremely optimistic price outlook from the historical development of the BTC price. He, too, sees at least a six-digit BTC rate in the long term and here, too, it is about parallel between Bitcoin and gold. With Stock to Flow (S2F) , PlanB uses a model that is primarily used to measure the rarity of a raw material. The amount in circulation of a raw material (stock) is related to its production rate (flow).
With its model, PlanB has worked out a supposed connection between the Bitcoin rate, its S2F ratio and the regular halvings. At least in the retrospective, PlanB was able to model the course history of BTC with S2F with astonishing accuracy. Due to the recent slide below the USD 30,000 mark, the Bitcoin price recently ran the risk of overturning the stock-to-flow model. The Bitcoin price moved at the lowest edge of the forecast and thus PlanB also drove the beads of sweat on the forehead:
Even for me, it’s always a bit uncomfortable when the bitcoin price is at the lower limit of the stock-to-flow model. Will it last (like March 2019 when I released S2F, or March 2020 Covid, or September 2020 when BTC was stuck at $ 10,000) and is this another buying opportunity? Or will S2F be invalidated?
PlanB on June 23rd via Twitter
A few days later, PlanB’s confidence in its own model seems to have been strengthened again. In an updated chart, he warns – similar to Minerd – of short-term volatility. In the long term, however, Bitcoin still only knows one direction: north.
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) June 27, 2021
If the stock-to-flow model continues, the BTC rate could crack USD 100,000 this year .