Global GDP in 2021 will increase by 5.6%, is predicted in the June review of the World Bank (WB) “Prospects of the world economy” (Global Economic Prospects, GEP).
This is the fastest rate of recovery from a recession in 80 years, mainly driven by strong recovery in economic activity in several large countries.
Meanwhile, many emerging market and developing countries continue to struggle to cope with the COVID-19 pandemic and its aftermath, the report said.
In the January GEP, the WB forecasted the growth of the world economy by 4% this year, thus, in June, the forecast was immediately improved by 1.6 percentage points.
Despite the economic recovery, global production by the end of this year will be about 2% lower compared to forecasts made before the start of the pandemic.
About two-thirds of emerging and developing economies will not be able to compensate for the decline in per capita income by 2022.
The pandemic has undermined gains in poverty reduction and contributed to increased instability and other long-term problems in low-income countries with a vaccine gap.
“Despite encouraging signs of global economic recovery, the pandemic continues to exacerbate poverty and inequality among people in developing countries around the world,” said World Bank Group President David Malpass. especially in low-income countries.”
As the health crisis eases, it will be necessary to tackle the long-term impact of the pandemic and take action to stimulate green, sustainable and inclusive economic growth without losing sight of maintaining macroeconomic stability, he said.
The growth rate of US GDP in 2021 will reach 6.8%, the World Bank predicts. This will reflect large-scale fiscal support and an easing of pandemic-related restrictions.
In other developed countries, economies are also strengthening, although not so significantly.
Among emerging market and developing economies, an impressive 8.5% recovery is expected this year in China’s economy, reflecting pent-up demand.
In general, in this group, GDP growth is projected by 6% under the influence of increased demand and growth in prices for raw materials (excluding the PRC – by 4.4%).
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However, the recovery of savings in many countries is hampered by new surges in the incidence of COVID-19 and a lag in the pace of vaccination, as well as, in some cases, the refusal to continue economic support.