In the 82nd week of the ongoing conflict, Ukrainian forces successfully neutralized advanced Russian air defense systems in Crimea and seized control of two strategically vital towns near the eastern city of Bakhmut. Additionally, there are indications that Ukrainian forces might have disabled three contemporary Russian warships, underscoring their growing proficiency in long-range enemy asset engagement while sustaining their territorial advancements.

Sea Drones Attack

On September 14, it appears that Ukraine employed naval drones in two separate incidents targeting Russian warships. Ukraine’s Strategic Command asserted that it struck two of Russia’s Vasily Bykov Project 22160-class patrol ships, resulting in unspecified damage. The Ukrainian government even released video footage showing the Vasily Bykov, commissioned in 2018, firing at a surface drone that appeared to be approaching for an attack.

In response, Russia’s defense ministry stated that its Black Sea Fleet had “destroyed two unmanned semi-submersible boats” in the southwestern part of the Black Sea, attributing them to Ukraine.

Additionally, the Ukrainska Pravda news outlet reported that a naval drone had caused damage to the rear starboard hull of a Bora-class guided missile corvette, the Samum, near the entrance to Sevastopol port. This damage compelled the vessel to be towed for repairs, with a noticeable roll to starboard.

Ukrainska Pravda further noted that the attack utilized an experimental model of a marine drone capable of operating in adverse weather conditions and evading detection behind high waves. During the operation, wave heights reportedly reached 1.5-2 meters, highlighting the effectiveness and adaptability of the drone technology employed by Ukraine.

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Russia’s defense ministry claimed that the Samum had effectively defended itself and eliminated the “unmanned naval boat.” However, photographs circulating online contradicted this assertion, as they depicted the Samum being towed by two tugboats, suggesting that the vessel had indeed suffered some form of damage or malfunction.

A day following this incident, Ukraine reportedly launched another attack, this time targeting the Russian patrol boat Askold, though the outcome of this attack remains undisclosed.

Phillips O’Brien, a professor of strategic studies at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, characterized the assault on the Samum as “one of the most well-executed and planned operations of this war so far.” He went on to state that Ukraine is not only holding its own in the maritime conflict but is, in fact, gaining the upper hand in this arena.

Long-distance attacks: Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, Crimea

Ukraine has significantly escalated its attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and its base in Crimea, specifically at Sevastopol.

On September 12, Ukraine launched missiles and drones, successfully targeting the Russian landing ship Minsk and a Kilo-class submarine that was docked at Sevastopol for repairs.

The maritime conflict has been intensifying since July 17 when Ukraine used unmanned surface drones to damage the Kerch Bridge, connecting its Crimean peninsula (annexed by Moscow in 2014) to the Russian mainland. Russia responded by withdrawing from a UN-backed agreement that had allowed Ukraine to export large quantities of grain from its Black Sea ports. Russia then warned it would use its naval power to obstruct Ukraine’s Black Sea exports.

In retaliation, Russia struck Ukrainian ports and grain silos along the Danube River, aiming to disrupt exports to Romania and beyond through Europe’s overland routes.

Ukraine countered by increasing long-distance attacks on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and Crimea:

On August 23, Ukraine destroyed a Russian state-of-the-art S-400 ‘Triumf’ air defense missile system in Crimea.

Two days later, it employed a drone swarm to attack the Russian 126th Guards Coastal Defense Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet near Perevalne in Crimea.

On September 14, Ukraine destroyed another S-400 battery near Yevpatoria, a western Crimean port. Russia acknowledged shooting down 11 drones in Yevpatoria but downplayed the incident. Geolocated footage indicated activity in the area of the reported attack.

According to a source within Kyiv’s secret service, a combination of unmanned aerial drones and Neptune missiles was used in the attack on the S-400 battery in Yevpatoria. The drones targeted the Russian air defense battery’s antennae, while the missiles struck its launchers.

The use of both aerial and surface drones in conjunction with missiles in these attacks demonstrates a growing sophistication in Ukraine’s strategy, as noted by military analysts.

If Ukraine can sustain these attacks and continue to disrupt Russian shipping in Sevastopol, it could compel the Black Sea Fleet to relocate to Russia, a significant step in Ukraine’s plan to regain control of Crimea.

Ukraine’s pushback against the Russian fleet appears to be yielding results, as Ukrainian Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov reported that five merchant vessels had docked in Ukrainian grain ports and departed with cargoes since August 15.

Ukrainian officials have stated their intent to persist with attacks on the Russian navy, and the Black Sea Fleet is reportedly keeping its ships in constant movement between Crimea and Russian naval bases due to the fear of further attacks.

Territorial momentum

On September 14, Ukrainian forces successfully seized control of the town of Andriivka, located five kilometers south of Bakhmut, as confirmed by Ukraine’s general staff.

The 3rd Separate Assault Brigade of Ukraine conducted what they described as a “lightning operation.” This operation effectively encircled the Russian garrison in Andriivka, isolating it from the main force. Over the course of two days, they managed to eliminate “almost all the infantry of the 72nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade,” including officers, and a significant amount of equipment.

Since the Russian occupation of Bakhmut in late May, Ukrainian forces have been gradually maneuvering around the city, both to the north and south. Three days following the recapture of Andriivka, Ukrainian troops raised their flag over the neighboring town of Klishchiivka, which is also situated to the south of Bakhmut.

Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that the liberation of Andriivka and Klishchiivka has severely undermined the combat capabilities of two elite Russian airborne formations, namely the 31st Guards VDV Brigade and the 83rd Guards VDV Brigade.

Geolocated footage revealed Ukrainian troop advancements near Rozdolivka, northwest of Bakhmut.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a Washington, DC-based think tank, emphasized the strategic significance of these gains. They believe that Russia’s allocation of military resources to hold Bakhmut for political reasons has allowed Ukraine to exploit weaknesses in well-prepared Russian defenses along the southern front lines, especially in western Zaporizhia.

In this region, Ukrainian forces were making progress west of Robotyne on September 16, a town they had captured in late August. They were also advancing west of Verbove, a town currently under their focus. Both Ukrainian and Western officials concur that Ukrainian troops have breached the first layer of Russia’s defensive positions and are now targeting the second layer of Russia’s front line. If they succeed in breaking through this second line, Ukrainian forces could potentially infiltrate behind Russian positions.

Azerbaijan’s defense ministry has initiated “counter-terrorism” operations in Nagorno-Karabakh, a breakaway region under Armenian control. Tensions have remained high for several months in this ethnically Armenian enclave, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan.

In recent incidents, eleven Azerbaijani police and civilians lost their lives in a mine explosion and another incident. Reports of air raid sirens have emerged from the main city of Karabakh.

Defense authorities in Nagorno-Karabakh have stated that the Azerbaijani military violated the ceasefire by launching missile and artillery strikes along the entire line of contact. Representatives from Nagorno-Karabakh mentioned a “large-scale military offensive” in Armenian media.

Azerbaijan and Armenia, neighboring countries, have engaged in armed conflicts over Nagorno-Karabakh twice, first in the early 1990s following the collapse of the Soviet Union and again in 2020.

Since December, Azerbaijan has effectively blockaded the only route into the enclave from Armenia, known as the Lachin Corridor.

On Tuesday, the defense ministry in Baku accused Armenian forces of continuously shelling army positions and claimed to have responded with “local, anti-terrorist operations” aimed at disarming and securing the withdrawal of Armenian armed forces from Azerbaijani territories. They emphasized that their actions were focused on legitimate military targets and not civilians or civilian facilities, employing high-precision weaponry.

Armenia’s defense ministry refuted the allegations of Armenian fire.

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The sounds of artillery and gunfire were audible on Tuesday from the Karabakh regional capital, Khankendi (known as Stepanakert to Armenians), where an estimated 120,000 ethnic Armenians reside.

Armenian officials reported that the situation along the country’s borders remained “relatively stable” as of 14:00 (10:00 GMT).

Russia issued a statement urging both countries to honor a ceasefire agreement signed after the 2020 war. During that six-week conflict, Azerbaijan regained control of territories surrounding Karabakh, which had been under Armenian control since 1994. A fragile ceasefire, monitored by approximately 3,000 Russian peacekeepers, has faced increasing challenges, with Russia’s attention diverted by its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently stated that Russia was “spontaneously leaving the region.”

Azerbaijan has denied any troop buildup in the region and, on Monday, permitted aid from the International Committee of the Red Cross to enter Karabakh via two routes: one through the Lachin Corridor from Armenia and the other along Azerbaijan’s Aghdam road.

China has formally registered its complaint with Germany following a statement by the German foreign minister, Annalena Baerbock, where she referred to President Xi Jinping as a “dictator.” The Chinese foreign ministry decried this characterization as “absurd” and denounced it as a provocative political act.

Annalena Baerbock made this remark during a live interview with Fox News, in which she was asked about Russia’s actions in Ukraine. She commented on the potential implications for other leaders like Xi Jinping if Putin were to succeed in the conflict.

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Mao Ning, a spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry, condemned Baerbock’s comments as “extremely absurd” and as an affront to China’s political standing. During a routine press briefing, Mao reiterated that China had formally voiced its grievances to Germany over this matter.

It’s worth noting that Baerbock has been a vocal critic of China, expressing concerns about its impact on global norms and describing certain aspects of her visit to China as “shocking.” She has also characterized Beijing as a growing systemic rival rather than just a trade partner. This incident follows a similar situation in June when U.S. President Joe Biden also referred to President Xi as a “dictator” shortly after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to China aimed at improving bilateral relations.

Images currently circulating on social media appear to depict extensive damage suffered by a Russian Navy Kilo-class diesel-electric attack submarine following a reported missile strike by Ukrainian forces last week. This Kilo-class submarine, along with a Ropucha-class landing ship, was situated in a dry dock within the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, located in Russian-occupied Crimea. The attack occurred in the early hours of September 13, as detailed in prior reports by The War Zone.

The images, initially made public by the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), an independent investigative organization, reveal what seems to be a precise strike to the vessel’s bow, resulting in a substantial breach. Towards the rear of the sail, on the starboard side, there is another significant impact, suggesting potential hull damage, potentially caused by a secondary explosion. Another plausible scenario might involve the detonation of a dual ‘BROACH’ warhead, akin to those carried by the Storm Shadow and/or SCALP-EG cruise missiles, which have been widely reported as being employed in the attack.

Numerous reports, including confirmation from the U.K. Ministry of Defense, point to the submarine in question as the Rostov-on-Don (B-237), an Enhanced Kilo-class vessel belonging to the Project 636.3 class. This submarine is equipped with the capability to launch Kalibr land attack cruise missiles, a type frequently employed against targets in Ukraine. The Rostov-on-Don was commissioned into service in 2014 and is one of four submarines of its class stationed with the Black Sea Fleet.

Irrespective of the specific circumstances, the extent of damage sustained by the submarine strongly implies that it may need to be deemed a total loss. In the most optimistic scenario, a complete reconstruction may be necessary, salvaging any salvageable components, a process that would render the submarine inoperable for a significant period, likely spanning several years. Furthermore, any such repair efforts would almost certainly have to take place outside of the Black Sea, presenting a substantial logistical challenge.

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Two authorities in the field of submarine warfare, undersea warfare analyst H. I. Sutton and former U.S. Navy submariner Aaron Amick, both conveyed their belief today via Twitter that the Improved Kilo-class submarine is damaged beyond the possibility of repair.

The photographs in question raise significant doubts about the official Russian statements suggesting that the submarine and the landing ship can be repaired and put back into service. Ukrainian officials had already expressed skepticism, asserting a “high probability” that these vessels are beyond restoration.

Shortly following the attack, satellite imagery from Sevastopol unveiled the extensive and severe damage inflicted upon the submarine and the landing ship. Not only did the vessels themselves show signs of significant fire damage, but the dry dock facility’s overall integrity appeared to be in doubt.

The Russian Ministry of Defense asserted that the attack comprised 10 missiles and three unmanned surface vessels (USVs), often referred to as drone boats, with a claim of successfully intercepting seven of these missiles. There have been allegations that the missiles utilized in the attack were air-launched Storm Shadow and/or SCALP-EG standoff missiles, which can be launched from Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 Fencer strike/reconnaissance aircraft.

In a tweet shortly after the attack, Mykola Oleshchuk, the chief of the Ukrainian Air Force, commended his pilots for their “excellent combat work,” further suggesting the potential involvement of Ukrainian Air Force personnel in the operation.

As previously emphasized, the severity of this attack on the port of Sevastopol, which has been the target of repeated Ukrainian actions since the Kremlin initiated its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, could have significant consequences. It might lead to considerations such as the potential relocation of a portion of the Black Sea Fleet or a reduced utilization of the facilities in the area.

Another pressing concern is Sevastopol’s capacity to conduct maintenance and repairs on Black Sea Fleet vessels, at least until the dry docks at the Sevmorzavod facility housing the submarine and landing ship can be restored to regular functionality.

According to a report from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, the damage to the infrastructure has likely seriously impaired Black Sea naval capabilities for the foreseeable future. This issue is further compounded by the absence of similar facilities for major naval ship repair work elsewhere in the Black Sea region.

The repercussions of the September 13 attack on Sevastopol go beyond the immediate damage inflicted. It highlights the limitations of repair facilities in the Black Sea region, even at ports like Novorossiysk on mainland Russia’s coast, which lack the capability for in-depth submarine maintenance. Floating docks elsewhere in Crimea also fall short in supporting extensive repair work.

Dmitry Gorenburg, an expert from the Washington-based Center for Naval Analyses think-tank, suggests that while the specific strike will impact Black Sea Fleet operations, the cumulative effect may lead to a gradual erosion of Russia’s control over the Black Sea.

Assessing the actual damage to the dry docks remains uncertain. It’s possible that the primary task will involve removing the wrecked submarine and landing ship, potentially followed by minor repairs. However, even this process could prove time-consuming and affect the availability of larger Black Sea Fleet vessels, assuming the dry docks aren’t targeted again.

In the short term, the aftermath of the September 13 attack may lead to reinforced ground-based air defenses around the port and additional measures to counter unmanned surface vessels (USVs), which have been recurrently employed against the facility and Black Sea Fleet warships. Ukraine’s efforts to degrade Russia’s high-end air defenses on the peninsula with long-range strikes could complicate these defensive measures. These strikes seem aimed at disrupting early warning and engagement capabilities for cruise missiles and drones, enhancing their overall survivability. Furthermore, they could enable Ukrainian Su-24s to approach the peninsula more closely for launching SCALP-EG and Storm Shadow missiles over the northwestern Black Sea.

Clearly, Ukraine anticipates further attacks on Sevastopol, potentially including the use of the land attack version of the domestically produced Neptune anti-ship missile—a significant development in the ongoing conflict.

Ukraine’s Digital Transformation Minister, Mykhaylo Fedorov, emphasized to Reuters last week that there will be an increase in drone attacks and other forms of attacks on Russian ships. It’s becoming evident that Russian warships face vulnerabilities while docked in Sevastopol. Moreover, with the maintenance and repair facilities currently incapacitated at that location, any additional damage to vessels will exacerbate the challenges facing the Russian Navy.

The commanding general of the Ukrainian ground forces declared that his troops had decisively defeated three elite Russian brigades engaged in combat along the front lines in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

General Oleksandr Syrskyi, speaking on Monday, also emphasized the significance of recent advances in the recapture of two eastern Ukrainian villages, Klishchiivka and Andriivka, both situated on elevated terrain near the ravaged town of Bakhmut.

“In the confrontations within the Bakhmut sector, some of the adversary’s most formidable units have been effectively neutralized, rendering them devoid of their fighting capabilities,” Syrskyi stated in an official announcement.

The Russian military units included the 72nd Motor Rifle Brigade and the 31st and 83rd Air Assault Brigades.

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Celebrating the successful reclamation of Klishchiivka and Andriivka, General Syrskyi underscored that Ukrainian forces continued their forward momentum and had achieved some breakthroughs in piercing Russian defensive lines. Nevertheless, Moscow’s forces were mounting counterattacks to reclaim lost territory from various directions.

“These settlements, seemingly modest at first glance, constituted crucial components of the adversary’s defensive perimeter extending from Bakhmut to Horlivka,” Syrskyi conveyed through the Telegram messaging app, referring to a town located approximately 40 kilometers (25 miles) from Bakhmut. “As a result of the effective actions by our troops, the adversary’s defensive front – which they endeavored to fortify by committing all available reserves – has been breached,” he affirmed.

Ilia Yevlash, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian military, emphasized the strategic significance of Klishchiivka during televised remarks. He stated that its successful recapture had exposed the southern flank of Bakhmut, serving as a promising launching point for further advancements.

Russian forces seized control of Bakhmut in May, but Ukrainian troops persisted in intense urban warfare, marking one of the bloodiest and lengthiest battles since Russia’s invasion last year.

On Saturday, Russia refuted claims of losing control over Andriivka, and the recent assertions of Ukrainian battlefield gains against Russian forces could not be independently confirmed.

The Washington, DC-based think tank, The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reported on Monday that Ukraine’s advances to the south of Bakhmut and claims of incapacitating the three Russian brigades might indicate significant setbacks for Moscow.

“The VDV elements [Russian airborne troops] were engaged in counterattacks and efforts to reverse Ukrainian progress around Bakhmut… and likely suffered substantial casualties,” per the ISW’s assessment.

The ISW also indicated that Russian forces south of Bakhmut were probably fatigued from recent endeavors to maintain control over Klishchiivka and Andriivka.

Since commencing its long-anticipated counteroffensive in June, Ukraine has managed to reclaim approximately 50 square kilometers (equivalent to over 19 square miles) of territory around Bakhmut. The sluggish progress of this campaign has faced criticism from some of Kyiv’s Western supporters.

While Ukrainian officials have acknowledged the slow pace of their advance, they have attributed it to the formidable Russian defenses, which include extensive trenches and vast minefields. Moscow had months to fortify these positions while Kyiv awaited the delivery of promised tanks from Western allies.

Hanna Maliar, Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister, who was one of six deputy defence ministers recently removed in a reshuffle under the new defense minister, previously stated that Ukrainian forces had successfully recaptured 51 square kilometers (19 square miles) near Bakhmut and over 260 square kilometers (100 square miles) of territory in the southern region of the country during the counteroffensive.