Despite a fantastic share price development in 2020, analysts are increasingly critical of the future of Tesla. Dr. Helmut Becker from the Munich Institute for Economic Analysis and Communication (IWK) is even convinced that the electric car pioneer will soon be swallowed up.
• Analyst criticism of Tesla
• The electric car pioneer could be taken over
• Tesla share price a bubble
In 2020, the Tesla share price had climbed an enormous 743 percent. In December, Tesla, led by Elon Musk, was worth as much as VW , Daimler , BMW , GM , Ford , Renault , Peugeot, Fiat, Hyundai , Honda , Nissan and Suzuki – that is, 12 large car companies combined.
Tesla is taken over
Still, Dr. Helmut Becker black for Tesla. He doubts that Tesla will be profitable in the auto business in the future. After all, the group did not even succeed as a monopoly. “Something like this is actually not provided for in economic theory. Now he has to share the supremacy with others and is about to slip away. The electric car market is developing into a competitive mass market. That’s it, Tesla will be swallowed up,” explained Becker of the magazine “Auto Motor Sport”.
Mixed quarterly figures from Tesla
In fact, Tesla’s numbers for the first quarter have been described as mixed by experts. Tech billionaire Elon Musk’s company made the seventh consecutive quarter in the black and earned $ 438 million more than ever. However, this was largely due to the trading of emissions certificates and profits with the crypto currency Bitcoin .
In addition, the quarterly sales grew by 74 percent to 10.4 billion dollars, which corresponded to the expectations of experts. In addition, 184,877 e-cars were delivered – that is more than double the previous year and a record in the history of the US company founded in 2003.
“The bubble will burst”
However, analysts complain that the positive results were again largely due to trading in emissions certificates, which other car manufacturers need to improve their emissions balance and thus meet legal requirements. In the first quarter alone, Tesla turned over $ 518 million. Tesla earned an additional $ 100 million from the sale of Bitcoin. One can almost get the impression that Tesla has two pillars: the sale of emission rights and the Bitcoin trading, criticised NordLB analyst Frank Schwope in a study. The sale of cars, on the other hand, still does not make a big contribution to profits.
Schwope also considers Tesla’s goal of average annual growth in deliveries of 50 percent over several years to be unrealistic. In his opinion, it is also negative that the model mix is shifting more and more towards the cheaper models such as the 3 and Y models, which is not very beneficial for the margin. Against this background, the NordLB has set the price target for Tesla at 270 US dollars and recommends the share “sell”.
Dr. Helmut Becker considers Tesla to be overvalued on the stock exchange. “The bubble will burst. That can happen quickly if the community realises that Tesla has no chance against the competition in the long run,” “Auto Motor Sport” quotes the IWK analyst. “If a car company makes accounting profits just from speculating Bitcoin and selling carbon credits, the end is near.” He pointed out that other car manufacturers’ need for CO2 offsetting will decrease in the future, as they would ultimately develop more and more e-cars.
Tesla caught up with the competition
Becker even believes that the competition has now caught up with the e-car pioneer: “Almost every manufacturer now has electric drives in their range, some better and cheaper Pioneer done, “the IWK analyst told Auto Motor Sport. In the meantime, the German competition has become so strong that Tesla is losing market share. “Compared to April of the previous year, Tesla lost 23.8 percent in new registrations, while the overall market for electric cars increased by 413.8 percent in the same period.”
Both analysts also question Tesla’s much-praised technical lead. According to the magazine, Dr. Helmut Becker the electric cars of the competition apparently on a similar level. And NordLB analyst Frank Schwope explained: “Tesla is indeed an avant-garde with a clear technological lead in the field of disruptive electromobility, but we do not see the Americans in the second disruption stage – autonomous driving – in any way. Here Waymo and Cruise should be a whole Be a little further “.
In fact, Tesla has been exposed to public pressure for a long time because of its name “autopilot”. Critics complain that this is an exaggeration that could lead to negligent use. Tesla even calls the next evolutionary stage of the program “full self-driving” – even though, according to current criteria, it is actually just an assistance system.
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Who is being taken over here?
Dr. Helmut Becker is therefore convinced that Tesla will ultimately be taken over. But what does Tesla boss Elon Musk himself think about it? Over the past few years he has also spoken out on the subject and his attitude has apparently changed significantly: According to his own statements, he was thinking about selling Tesla to Apple in 2018 . “During the darkest days of the Model 3 program, I reached out to Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple’s acquisition of Tesla (for one-tenth our current value),” admitted Musk. At that time, his group was only a month before bankruptcy, especially because of the Model 3 project. But the Apple CEO “refused to meet,” Musk said.
In the meantime, however, the omens have changed and Elon Musk announced that he could imagine taking over a competitor himself, should he not encounter resistance. According to “Kfz Wirtschaft”, US experts have already brought Daimler into play as a possible candidate in this context. Because with Mercedes-Benz, Daimler is serving a similar customer base as the Musk Group in terms of price class and demands and could strengthen Tesla’s position in the Chinese and European markets.